World Championships 2018 Predicted Meta Share and Meta Scores

World Championships 2018 is days away (I believe it will be less than 48 hours away at the time of this being published) and I have decided I am playing one of two decks: Zoro Garb or Zoro Control. As I feel that I play both decks well and I have very solid lists prepared, my final decision will be influenced by what decks I expect to face. Below is my expected metashare for Day 1. I have it depicted in a pie chart and I’ll explain my thought process that went into this predicted metashare.

Buzzroc - 20%

Buzzroc has been strong for so long and has become a deck that many players are comfortable playing. Because of its good matchup spread, low skill floor, and aggression, it is considered by most players to be one of the best plays for Worlds. Because of its aggression, Buzzroc can overwhelm any deck that is having a slow set up and will usually avoid tying. This would absolutely be my number 1 choice if I wasn’t very comfortable with the two Zoroark decks that I am choosing between. I know many players that set Buzzroc aside as their default choice while testing rogue decks and riskier choices. I completely expect that at least 1 in 5 Day 1 competitors will choose to play Buzzroc. My one note on the build of this deck is to play more draw supporters than many people online have been running. 10 Draw Supporters is the way to go.

ZoroGarb - 15%

ZoroGarb won NAIC and has since gained some well deserve hype and new pilots of the archetype. In my past few days of testing, I have decided that the ideal list for Worlds is fairly different from Stephanne Ivanoff’s BKT-FLI list. Basic psychic energy is better in place of Unit Energy to avoid being affected by Enhanced Hammer, and Garbotoxin may not be worth playing anymore with many decks playing 3 Field Blowers as opposed to 2. I believe that a list built more like Zoro Control that uses Trashalanche as a backup attacker is the best way to go. I think we will see a lot of ZoroGarb decks that are very close to the NAIC winning list that have Oranguru UPR added in. As Zoro Control is extremely hard to pilot perfectly, Zoro Garb will be a common choice amongst players who have become accustomed to playing Zoroark-GX decks this season. I believe that this is one of the two best plays for Worlds, the other being Buzzroc. Expect to play against this deck Day 1.

Zoroark Control - 10%

Playing this deck is like playing chess in most cases. Once set up, you can do almost anything with this deck. You have multiple one of trainers available and there is almost always one optimal play. As long as the list is at least close to ideal, you should be able to beat anything. The mirror match is painful and a tie is very possible. Since games take so long with this archetype due to grindy games that sometimes go to deckout, ties are a threat regardless of the matchup. You have to be able to play fast, flawlessly, and be prepared to within reason make sure your opponents are keeping pace of play all day. Although I believe that this is the undisputed best deck in format, I don’t expect more than 1 out of 10 Day 1 players to choose it because of the insanely high skill floor and ceiling, the near endless possible inclusions for the list, the threat of ties, and the shaky Rayquaza-GX matchup.

Rayquaza-GX - 10%

I think that this deck should be played in its consistent and straightforward form, without Garbodor. If you get set up really well, the Garbodor version is like playing Straight Ray with an added bonus of ability lock. But, in my personal testing the Garbodor variant attains checkmate board states less often than the straight variant. Rayquaza-GX can overrun most decks if it gets a good set up, and it is also fairly simple to pilot. I think the simplicity, consistency, and speed of this deck will lead to 1 out of 10 players or so piloting it Day 1.

Zororoc / Zoropod - 5% each

These variants are both very solid, consistent decks, but take hard losses to Zoro Control if not built drastically different than their NAIC lists. Zororoc cannot beat Zoro Control with all strong energy, so basic fighting energy could be subbed in. In my opinion Zororoc has to be built to 50/50 Zoro Control or Buzzroc, but cannot stand a fair chance against both while also being consistent. I do not think Zororoc is a very good play going into worlds, and it pains me to say this as it was my favorite deck of the season.

Greninja - 5%

People will play Greninja even when they shouldn’t. This is one of those times. I have very little to say about this deck aside from do not tech Giratina for it. You likely will not run into it.

Malamar Variants - 5%

I have heard some talk about Malamar being a sleeper pick due to the hype Buzzroc is receiving, but the deck can even lose to Buzzroc. It bricks due to little draw power, and it loses hard to most Zoroark variants. I think maybe 1 or 2 will grind into Day 2 due to lucky matchups, but I don’t suggest playing it.

Damage Spread Variants - 5%

The main deck here is Yveltal Break/Shrine. I think that Yveltal Break has an awesome Buzzroc matchup as well as a good Rayquaza matchup. Its Zoro Garb matchup is shaky and its Zoro Control matchup is close to unsalvageable. I expect 1 or 2 damage spread decks to do well if they can manage to avoid Zoroark Control and Stakataka variants.

Stakataka Variants - 5%

Oh hey! Stakataka variants. Stakataka Naganadel is so so good vs Buzzroc which is a reason all in its own to play the deck. Unfortunately the deck is 50/50 at best vs Zoro Garb and just straight up loses to Zoroark Control. If you truly believe you are going to face 5+ Buzzrocs, then by all means play Stakataka Naganadel. Stakataka Dusk Mane Necrozma-GX on the other hand is very good vs Zoroark Control and Buzzroc. Its main issue is consistency which is why I am not considering it as a choice. I do think the deck has a lot of potential to do well though.

Gardevoir Variants - 5%

Gardevoir-GX / Gallade BKT variants are slightly favored vs. Zoroark Control, but Zoroark Control can always pull out the win due to consistency and disruption. I highly considered Zoroark Gardevoir but it loses too hard to Buzzroc.

Meta Scores

Below is a chart depicting the meta scores that I have calculated based on matchups weighted by my predicted meta shares. So for example, a good matchup vs. Buzzroc is worth more than a good matchup vs. Greninja.

You’ll see that Stakataka Variants have a very high meta score. This is because Stakataka Dusk Mane is favored vs Zoroark Control and Buzzroc, two archetypes that I expect to take up large portions of the meta respectively. Take all of this as you will, but I believe my meta predictions to be fairly accurate due to past experience and the time I have put into this format.

The one thing that this system does not account for is consistency of the deck. So although Stakataka variants received a very good meta score, I do not credit the deck with great consistency.

Below is Meta Score vs Unweighted Matchup Score, so you can see how the decks’ grades change when I eliminate the weights of their matchups. So in this case, a good matchup vs Buzzroc is valued the same as a good matchup vs Greninja.

You’ll see here that while Greninja did not have a great Meta Score, its unweighted score is very high. This is because many of its very favorable matchups are vs archetypes that I predict will take up less of the meta like Gardevoir variants and Zororoc.

So what does all of this mean? Well I created this system and depicted the data to allow you, the reader, to make a more educated decision on what to play. I think Worlds is the place for a rogue deck if it has merit to it, like Stakataka Dusk Mane. I also think that consistency throughout 8-9 rounds is very important, so in this case my thoughts are clashing due to Stakataka’s lack of draw power. I personally will not be going the route of rogue, although I do not think my list will be 100% similar to anyone else’s, regardless of the Zoroark variant I choose. Good luck everyone, and thank you for reading!