Atlantic City Regionals Tier List, Meta Scores, Selecting a Deck

This meta of Welder decks is frustrating to look at from a deck-builder’s perspective because of the aggression, draw power, and versatility that one energy type currently has. Pikarom is a close second in having a lot of type-specific support, but I’d argue it is in a separate realm than Welder and Fire types are. While Fire decks have access to the most powerful supporter in the game, there is still a shockingly high number of different archetypes that I would consider tournament viable.

Tier List

Below is a list of all of the archetypes I have seen played, asked about, experimented with, and theorized about. I am not naming the tiers by number for this list mostly because the power levels aren’t drastically different between most groups of decks. I will be labeling the list with “high tier”, “mid tier, and “rogue / low tier”. Tier lists can be rather arbitrary but they are a good way to depict your thoughts on the meta visually and rank decks accordingly. Friends will always come to me and say things like “well I wanted to play this deck, but everyone is putting it in Tier 2 so I guess I should pick a better deck” or “the deck I was working on wasn’t even in this top 10 video - should I just scrap it?”. I want to make it clear that I highly expect most or all of the decks in high and mid tier to show up in some capacity in Day 2 of AC Regionals. Sure, I expect Ability Zard to be much more popular and have many more Day 2 spots, but I also think that decks lower on the list like Nag Quag and Pidgeotto will make in to day 2 because they are inherently functional decks with good and bad matchups just like the majority of decks in the upper sections of the list.

This list depicts my personal opinion on the strength and viability of the archetypes listed. 

High Tier

• Ability Zard
• Mewtwo
• Green Zard
• Pikarom
• Spell Tag Malamar
• Blacephalon Naganadel

Mid Tier

• Gardeon
• Pidgeotto
• Shedinja
• Naganadel Quagsire
• Darkrai Umbreon

Low Tier / Rogue / Underplayed

• Ultra Malamar
• Naganadel Checkmate
• Poipole Control
• Tina Chomp Malamar
• Keldeo Bronzong Stall
• Spiritomb Froslass
• Gengar Mimikyu Omastar
• Beheeyum
• Aerodactyl Carracosta
• Rampardos
• Whimsicott Porygon
• Keldeo-GX Vaporeon-GX
• Breloom Froslass

Meta Scores

Below are my current calculations for meta scores on 11 archetypes from the above list. The first chart shows unweighted averages and the second shows weighted averages. Unweighted means that all matchups are equally weighted. For example: both a 60/40 matchup versus Ability Zard and a 60/40 matchup versus Shedinja would equally contribute to the total meta score if we are using an unweighted system. Weighted means that each archetype has been given a value that matches their projected meta share for the upcoming tournament. For example: a 60/40 matchup versus Ability Zard would count for 20% of the final meta score while a 60/40 matchup versus Shedinja would count for 2% of the final meta score.

According to my calculations, Spell Tag Malamar has the best matchups on paper regardless of the matchups’ weights. When digesting these results please remember a few things:

• These are statistics run using my matchup percentages and my expected meta shares
• This is only on paper. Anything can happen in real life. 
• This should be used as a guideline for matchup spreads if that is a deciding factor when you are choosing a deck. Plenty of players choose decks without ever looking at matchup spreads and succeed. If looking at matchups and deck choice with quantitative data appeals to you, then great! You have come to the right place. 

• The values are technically different from one another if they have statistically significant differences. The level I am using here for significant difference is 2%. This means that in the Weighted chart, Psychic Malamar at 52.35% and Ability Zard at 51.50% are not significantly different from each other (since 52.35-51.50=0.85 and 0.85<2), but Psychic Malamar at 52.35% and Spiritomb at 50.10% are significantly different from each other (since 52.35-50.10=2.25 and 2.25>2). You can choose to look at these levels however you like.

Something I am very excited about is that I have an almost (baby steps) fully automated spreadsheet that you can copy for yourself, edit, and even add your own unlisted deck(s) into. I even put together a short video to help you use it. 

You’ll notice that my matchup ratings go from 30% in a deck’s favor to 70% in a deck’s favor. Since Pokemon TCG is a card game that involves variance, user error, statistical anomalies, ties, and penalties, I am uncomfortable marking any matchup down as 100/0 or 0/100. Of course, you have free reign once you copy the sheet! Do note that the statistical significance will change if you are using a different range as mine was calculated for my low being 30% and my high being 70%.

Selecting a Deck

I truly believe that many archetypes in the high and mid tiers give you a fine chance at Day 2 granted that you have average luck and play better than your opponents. With so many decks to choose from and many having similar power levels, it is important to choose a deck that you enjoy and are confident in piloting. While many of you may be going for points for a World Championships invite, keep in mind that there are plenty of other tournaments and this is not make or break. Everyone wants to do well and should aspire for greatness, but remember to go in having fun even if that fun is mixed with the desire to win and compete at a high level. If you're not having fun, do something else with your time. I am really looking forward to the first Regional of the year and I hope you all are too! Unfortunately there will not be a live stream, but I will be updating my own record and the decks I am seeing around me on my Twitter @Celios_network and Pokestats will also be sharing updates as usual on Twitter @pokestatstcg. Thanks for reading, and good luck if you are competing in any of the events around the world this weekend!

.