State of Magic the Gathering Finance: May 2021 + One Year After Covid
These past 12 to 14 months have been crazy and for most of us as we've had major life changes due to the pandemic. This has had several different impacts on Magic the Gathering and other collectables in general. (Full disclosure) I do not know everything, but I try to keep up with all the different MTG things going on. I sell several thousand dollars worth of MTG singles and products per month online. All of this information is from personal experience from what I've seen happen in the MTG market within the past year or so.
With all the different formats to choose from in MTG we have different levels of supply and demand. In Standard we have in-print sets with tons of support in MTG Arena and a not-so-big barrier to entry for competitive level play. In Standard it's normal to see newer or tweaked decks win a Magic Fest or some premier event online. This would cause certain cards to become more in demand or less in demand depending on how a deck was doing in the meta. So it was normal to see spikes and stagnation on cards from decks that fell out of favor. Then about 2 years out when Standard is rotating you'll see a selloff of cards. This is so people can recoup funds from stagnating cards, or to provide funds for other cards in different formats or the new Standard. The top tier decks in Standard have high velocity sales transactions for the high in demand cards.
In Modern you have a bit more diversity with decks, power levels, and synergies. Sideboards to the meta are a lot more important in this format than in Standard. I can't tell you how many times I went to a GP and needed around 3-5 cards just for my sideboard for that weekend's event. I'd always try and hunt them down at a vendor and just pay whatever the asking price was to acquire the cards. As with Standard you'll have your normal decks come to win events, prices of certain cards in that deck spike, and other decks stagnate over time. Modern is different in the fact the set rotation is far different than Standard and the amount of sets you have to choose from is a lot larger. When it comes to online sales several of the Modern format cards also transition over demand for Commander format cards. There is also a price jump tier when it comes to overall cost of most of the top tier Modern decks so there is a little more of a barrier to entry.
In Commander the format is very diverse because of: deck size, theme, playgroup, and maybe even play group meta. You can open up a $35-$40 pre-constructed deck and play with friends casually or at your LGS and have tons of fun. Or you can build the coolest foiled out deck on the planet with power levels way beyond a pre-con. For the most part I see the highest level of demand for cards to add to new Commander decks that recently came out. I also see new themes or new Legendary Creatures that get lots of social media attention. This will usually spike prices and create high organic demand for certain cards. The demand will tend to weaken or even die off after a couple of weeks. For the most part I feel Commander has the most velocity when it comes to the amount of transactions for certain popular Commander staple cards.
In the older formats of: Vintage, Legacy, Old-School, and Alpha 40 we have a good diversity of decks and cards. These formats can be purely fun and nostalgic or very competitive from different generations of Magic players. The biggest negative to these formats is the high cost of cards (due to low supply) which is a big barrier to entry for a large percentage of Magic players in general. There was once a time when there was little to no support for these formats, but eventually you started to see them pop up at more Magic events over time. You'll usually catch them at Magic fests, a random local tournament, or a special invitation only event by an old-school group. This is one of the most lucrative areas of MTG finance, but the sales velocities can be relatively low unless you run auctions. The demand seems to come and go with each individual's disposable income or investment income. The demand is mostly organic, but since there are less cards in circulation you have to be careful of buyouts and price manipulation.
It's January 2021 and your Vintage and reserve list Alpha, Beta, Unlimited, and 4 Horseman set cards have seen a great increase in price. I felt as if some were liquidating cards into profits and buying certain cards they thought at the time were not overpriced. Little did we know how much of a change we would see in the MTG singles marketplace due to several upcoming government stimulus checks. I feel that individuals were also cashing out of crypto currencies and buying up lots of alternative assets such as MTG cards and other collectables. The big thing was the stimulus checks where we had lots of people having money that usually did not have that much disposable income. This led to massive amounts of purchases of MTG cards, MTG sealed product, PS5's, and yes even new PC's and GPU's among other consumer goods and collectables.
During the months of April 2020, December 2020, January 2021, and March 2021 my online sales were well up over 1000% from their prior year. Months close to or in-between seen anywhere from 200-300% increases in overall sales. This is just nuts right? That's what I thought but it was nice for a while. Now online sales have started to become sluggish even though I'm listing more items than I have ever done before. I expect inflation to have some effect on total sales / online sales over the next 12 months. However, if any more stimulus checks are given out I expect to see a spike during the month they are dispersed.
The pandemic killed organized play. Unfortunately we could not safely have large events of any kind as of recent and I'm sure this led to several stores, and even the event organizers changing up their whole business, or how they conduct business. Myself personally, I would still meet people for collection buys at Starbucks locations outside. However some stores had to just close, some were by appointment only, and some were curbside pickup only. Without the Magic Fests and other large events your big table vendors/buyers had to do most business online. Even the large event organizer that ran the magic fests recently said they are personally getting out of singles, but instead evolving into an online marketplace and not a vendor. I feel that with everyone flocking to sell online prices on Standard, Modern, and Commander got a lot more competitive. When it comes to Vintage and graded cards the market was not as competitive because the supply of certain cards was low, or in some cases on graded cards there was only 1 available on any platform to purchase. When it comes to rarities and low population the seller has to essentially make up a price they are comfortable letting a card go for, even though it may or may not be a realistic price to buyers in the marketplace.
I feel that WOTC is pretty much going for all home runs on every summer product, and will also do so on the 4th Quarter Winter / Christmas product(s). One thing I know for sure is that Hasbro is dedicated to growing their company dividend, as well as the growth of their share price. This means they have to do drastic and innovative things to create more revenues and continued revenue growth. In general I don't think the decision makers care about your feelings, how much you can afford to pay for a box of magic cards, or whether or not you care about them reprinting cards. The decision makers are solely in it to make revenues, while also producing an exciting product that consumers will flock to pay up for. I called them reprinting Cabal Coffers in MH2 over 2 months ago because it was an uncommon going for over $100 that was not on the reserve list. Pretty much any in demand Commander card over $20 has a high probability of being reprinted. Two targets for reprinting in the near future, and are even possible in MH2 are: Anointed Procession and Smothering Tithe.
Speaking of MH2 did you see Subtlety and Grief?
These are both pretty good cards in their own right and may or may not see Modern play once the resurgence back to large organized play happens. However, I wanted to give the readers something else to pick up before prices could potentially go up. We've seen Elemental Commander decks mainly in the form of Omnath, Locus of the Roil. However with more cool elementals just being reprinted I think more Elemental Commander decks will start popping up. These could potentially have new themes all together. Magic 2020 / Core 2020 has rotated out of Standard, and is no longer an in-print set. They have 1 mythic elemental in each color that are currently pretty cheap. I feel that if you plan on building an elemental Commander deck anytime in the future you should pick these up now.
Cavalier of Dawn Cavalier of Gales
Cavalier of Night Cavalier of Flame Cavalier of Thorns
As for the future of organized play, I think FNM's and small events starting back up here within the next week or two is a fantastic sign. Magic will have a good resurgence with tons of people I know just itching to get back into some large competitive events. As long as this happens I see Standard and Modern singles benefiting tremendously with people needing cards for decks at the events. The vintage and old-school formats I feel are not as affected as a lot of these players already have their decks and there aren't too many changes to the formats with set rotations. Coming soon we will see tons of new players, and old players getting back into the game with Dungeons & Dragons: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms. One thing's for sure: Magic the Gathering and MTG Finance are not going anywhere anytime soon.
