Silver and Gold. Malcador’s secret project, in the form of the Grey Knights, and an early attempt at perfection, in the form of the Legio Custodes. These armies have a number of parallels, as among the most elite that aren’t purely Knight-size chassis, on top of a worrying truth: They’re old. As for the Grey Knights, their full plastic range debuted the year I started 40k in 2011, and essentially all of those kits remain legal to this very day. In a recent RTT, I was faced with plastic models that very soon could legally drive. Meanwhile, Custodes have just received their preview of a largely-refreshed range for the Horus Heresy, on top of plastic kits for famed vehicles like the Contempor-Achillus & Caladius Grav-Tank, but the elephant in the room remains, of their banana-headed brethren from the initial release back in 2016. The clock is ticking for these models, who have rapidly become undersized compared to the Primaris Space Marine line, doubly awkward given their stature and elite nature in the actual lore. So, what’s to become of these ranges? First, let’s talk about the good news.

Source: Warhammer Community
Something you’ve likely heard echoed numerous times from people onboarding folks onto 40k is that not every army is equally expensive. I know this well, being an Admech player myself, but since ~8th edition Custodes & Grey Knights have been in a league of their own. On top of high (arguably bloated) point costs, and low expected model counts, they’ve consistently had the highest point totals in their respective Start Collectings, Combat Patrols, & Army Box Sets. There was a time when the best Grey Knights list in 10th was quite literally 3 copies of Combat Patrol: Grey Knights, a tournament-winning list for around ~$300. Moreover, these factions were forgiving to paint, given their high-contrast metallics and optional filigree, and transporting your models could be done with some of the smallest army cases on the market. In short, even compared to Knights, you could get into 40k on a budget via Custodes & Grey Knights. As time has worn on, however, fewer and fewer people recommend these forces, why is that? Well, there’s a reason for their pricing.

That reason? These models are old, and at least for the Grey Knights, quite literally of a different era. These were sculpts made during the Firstborn Marine era, from 4th-7th edition, where ‘Heroic Scale’ reigned supreme amid massive pauldrons and goofy hands. That style is charming, and wonderfully legible from ~3 feet away, as you might hope from a tabletop wargame, but up close these models have started to show their age. You need only compare an old versus new Custodian Guard to see the difference; it’s hard to know how rough those older sculpts were, until Games Workshop decided to refresh the range.
With new, gorgeous sculpts however, comes a radical increase in price. Even with the high point totals, I fully expect the new 6-model box set of Horus Heresy Custodian Guard to sit in the ~$80-90 range, and that’s a fairly big uptick from where they currently sit. That being said, there is a glimmer of hope for the emperor’s golden boys & girls: Their vehicles are plastic, which is both cheaper & easier to work with than the previous resin incarnations.

Via The Tabletop Alliance
On the topic of Custodian resin, it holds with it a bit of a secret, in that the army has never been cheap…to play at a competitive level. Yes, you could get 2000pts of Custodians for ~$250 at MSRP, but it wouldn’t be a very good list. The beef of the army, their best datasheets, were almost entirely Forgeworld Resin, and those came with a hefty pricetag that shot most forces up to the price of regular Marine armies. Factoring that in, Grey Knights blow Custodes out of the water when it comes to collectability for folks planning to enter 40k tournaments.
I specify 40k tournaments, as well, because of a quiet policy we’ve seen at Games Workshop since 2022, the ‘One Model, One System’ rule. It’s by no means a hard-and-fast law that the company follows, but it’s something we need to address in talking about the future of the Grey Knights & Custodes on the whole.

Via Titanomachy
See, at the tail end of covid I was a tournament grinder for AoS 3rd Edition—I brought Beasts of Chaos to every event, had 5000pts beautifully converted and painted, and even covered the army on a few of the competitive sites for the system. Then, at the dawn of 4th Edition, they were moved to The Old World. We’ve seen similar attempts with things like Daemons being slowly shafted, and chunks of AoS being brought to the inferior system against their will. I at one point owned 3 resin Chaos Sicaran tanks, all of which became unplayable in 40k once Chaos lost access to their Heresy-era relic weapons.
My point is, Games Workshop has a vested interest in not allowing cross-compatability across their systems, and has been exercising little restraint in isolating factions to single games. Now that we have beautiful Horus Heresy Custodes, including vehicles, are we…absolutely sure they’ll remain in 40k? I mean, they’ve been allowed it alongside Knights for 10th edition, but do we really expect the Legio Custodes to forever be granted an exception?

Via Vincent Knotley
Then, there’s the Grey Knights, who in 10th edition received not a single new model—just an upgrade kit for their Grandmaster in Nemesis Dreadknight. The new Hastarii from Admech stand taller than the average Strike Squad member, and while I appreciate some reverence being given to Firstborn models I grew up around, 11th Edition is feeling pretty ‘do or die’ for the faction. This is either going to be when the army receives a full refresh…or is put out to pasture, at least for a time. I think Grey Knights have a better case to receive entirely-new plastic, though, given they exist solely in 40k. Unlike Beasts of Chaos, or indeed Custodes, there’s not a second game to shunt the faction to, and in an era where nothing is allowed to die (Yarrick is back, what a surprise), there’s no doubt in my mind Grey Knight players will eat good. That might be 2-3 years out, mind you, and I’d say you’re still safe to collect things like the Dreadknights in the meantime.

Via Warhammer Community
So, what’s the verdict? If I was a betting man, I’d say we’re looking at a 2027 Grey Knight refresh, and for the Custodes to be very sad once that next Codex drops. It’d cause a loud uproar, sure, but eventually everyone quieted down about the Forge World tanks being unavailable outside of Legends, anyway. I believe the dissent from this choice won’t be loud enough to save Custodes from the fact their new plastic is branded ‘Horus Heresy’, even if it is absolutely gorgeous. My pessimism is rooted in being a Beasts of Chaos player, though, and a hit goat will holler, so the saying (kinda) goes. To that end, I’d say you’re safe to buy any 40k-labelled Custodes in the meantime, and with a low price on Flipside, there’s never a bad time to get into a second army! After all, it’s only ~40 or so models for a full Custodes list, and they’re 90% Retributor Gold as a basecoat.
What do you think will happen to these two model ranges in the coming Edition? Is there any world where Custodes get to straddle the line between games? If they get shifted to Horus Heresy, will you as a Custodes player follow them? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below!